Future cars: electric, more amenities, driverless by 2020

By Dick Pelletier

      

    Despite world car population approaching one billion, the economy has devastated the auto industry. To revive their failing businesses, U.S. automakers are going electric. Industry experts predict that by 2013, 200,000 battery-driven vehicles will be on the road; by 2015, 600,000; and by 2020; 4 million American cars will run on electricity.

    Today these cars are a bit pricey at $5,000 over comparable gas models, but the Obama tax incentive is expected to make them more attractive; and the promise of superior performance and 300 miles between charges on planned future models will help spur sales. Chrysler ecoVoyager, Dodge Zeo, and GM's hybrid Volt all hope to dominate the market. Mercedes-Benz, Mitsubishi, Toyota, Tesla, and China's BYD E6 are also developing all-electric cars for the U.S.

    High-tech amenities are in. Half of new vehicles sold in the U.S. are MP3-enabled and 80% connect with wireless Bluetooth headsets. GM's OnStar remotely unlocks doors, disables stolen cars, and dials 911. Toyota plans to launch a similar driver-assist program and Ford's Sync will soon add voice-activated on-demand traffic, sports and weather, plus GPS navigation.

    Hyundai recently launched a system that warns when drivers unintentionally drift lanes. Pedestrian-detection software with heat-seeking cameras will soon alert drivers when a human is in their path. Ford is releasing a car computer to bridge home workstations with the office, and AT&T plans to sell an in-car 22-channel satellite TV system.

    Other advances planned for tomorrow's cars include eliminating the drive train by placing electric motors in each wheel, which improves safety, reduces weight, and allows extra storage; self-healing rubber that prevents tires from being deflated; and futuristic designs of dent-proof nanomaterials that change shape and color on command (think KITT on NBC's Knight Rider).

    As computers and sensors become more sophisticated, cars handle more of the boring and tricky work of driving. By 2020 experts predict, they will handle all of it. When cars know where they are, where they need to go, recognize lane markers, alert one another to their actions, and automatically steer and brake, some ask, what's left for humans to do? The answer: sit back, relax; browse the net or watch TV.

    Computer-driven cars are collision-proof, putting an end to most traffic deaths. They also promise higher speeds and lower energy consumption. Cars could travel highways and streets at high speeds using less energy and without risk of accidents.

    Self-driving cars are possible on our current roadways using technology that could be in place within a decade, said GM research executive Larry Burns at the 2009 Las Vegas Consumer Electronics Show. The concept embraces emerging automated cognitive and control technologies ultimately aimed at a "taxi-like" passenger experience, but without need for human drivers.

    Most barriers to driverless cars are social rather than technical. Drivers are already uncomfortable with "event data recorders" that record a car's actions prior to an impact. How will they react to cars that continuously record everything?

    And some people will always put ultimate faith in their own driving skills. But as our "magical future" begins to unfold, forward-thinkers believe that by mid-2020s or sooner, driverless electric cars will become an indispensable part of our lives.

This article appeared in various print publications and on-line blogs. Comments always welcome.