Global GDP trends predict strong economy future ahead

By Dick Pelletier

      

    As birth rates continue to drop and breakthroughs in stem cell research and genetic engineering strive to conquer life’s debilitating diseases, other advancing technologies in automated systems, robotics, and molecular nanotech offer great potential to increase incomes and lower living costs for citizens in every country.

    Experts see a robust financial future for much of the world as the 21st century unfolds. It's often easy to overlook the positive forces of history; forces created by technologies designed to eradicate poverty, improve health, and extend lifespans.

    The facts behind these assertions lie in two trends. UN statisticians project today's 6.7 billion population will reach 9 billion by 2050 and peak at 10 billion before 2100. Futurists predict that when Earth reaches maximum population, demands for increased resources will diminish, resulting in more wealth available for everyone.

    The second trend shows a continual rise in world economic output. UC Berkeley economy historian Bradford DeLong authored a report listing per-capita world income from 1750 to 2150.

    DeLong's projections revealed that global GDP grew at an annual rate of 1% or less until the beginning of the industrial revolution; by 1950 it increased to 2%. And by 2000, information technologies pushed world GDP to a record 4% growth.

    The U.S. Census Bureau reports that income also grew during this period. Average per-capita income was $252 in 1750; by 1850 it rose to $398; 1900 to $900; 1950 to $2,149; and in 2000, it reached $8,665. By 2050, economists predict per-capita income will reach $25,464 giving the average household over $100,000 (in 2005 dollars). By 2100, families will receive over one-half million 2005 dollars every year.

    Though these projections may sound extreme, with technologies like molecular nanotech, quantum computing, and strong artificial intelligence predicted to be developed by mid-century or before, experts believe this is a reasonable representation of how our financial future will unfold.

    Will 2100 families be able to live on $500,000 per-year? What kind of expenses might exist in this distant future time to spend our money on? Just as our Civil War ancestors would have trouble imagining spending the kind of money required to purchase today’s automobile or home, it’s quite likely there are things we will buy in 2100 that we can’t even dream of today. Will we command a group of personal androids; or pop through a wormhole to visit relatives in a distant space colony?

    How we might spend our money at the end of this century, and whether we will be able to – or even want to – save money in this future time, remains a mystery today. But if UN predictions are correct and population peaks at ten billion, resource shortages will not be a problem.

    Technologists estimate that tomorrow's molecular nanotechnology could provide resources to support up to 100 billion people. And space enthusiasts believe that one day, many of us will live off-planet in distant space colonies or artificial habitats.

    Can this optimistic vision become reality in such a short time? Positive futurists say it can, and if life extension technologies unfold as expected over the coming decades, many people alive today will survive to enjoy this most amazing "magical future."

This article appeared in various print publications and on-line blogs. Comments always welcome.