Future of war: stronger focus on underlying causes of unrest

By Dick Pelletier

     In The American Way of War, historian Russell Weigley describes a grinding strategy of destruction employed by the U.S. military over the last 150 years. To end the Civil War, Grant felt he had to completely destroy Lee’s soldiers; in World War I, Pershing relentlessly bombarded and wore down Germany’s proud fighting machine; and the Army Air Corps pulverized major German and Japanese cities to win World War II.

     These wars were not won by tactical or strategic brilliance but by the sheer weight of numbers – the awesome destructive power that only a fully mobilized and highly industrialized democracy can bring to bear. In these conflicts, U.S. armies suffered and inflicted massive casualties. Our ability to both inflict and endure such casualties more effectively than could our adversaries ultimately resulted in victory.

     However, this strategy is no longer effective. Inspired by dramatic advances in information technologies, the U.S. military has adopted new warfare tactics that eliminate the bloody slogging matches of old. The new combat style seeks quick victory with minimal casualties on both sides and utilizes speed, flexibility, and surprise. It relies on precision firepower and integrates naval, air, and land forces into a seamless whole. This technique was clearly demonstrated in the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

     But experts predict that even this latest approach must now change. Today, we are experiencing an era of conflict that includes warfare in which dominant military powers are confronted by a wide range of adversaries – from non-state radical ideologies (al Qaeda) to transnational criminal elements (Russian Mafia) to rogue states (N. Korea, Iran) – all employing unconventional tactics.

     From suicide bombers to information warfare, the threat has become inescapable. 9/11 brought world attention to “suicide warfare” and it has been echoed time and again from London to Indonesia; and experts say we can expect this trend to continue. Former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski warns that “future terrorist groups will view 9/11 as the standard for success.”

     And even more dangerous, today’s enemies are trying to acquire chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. These weapons in the hands of radical organizations like al Qaeda which is not connected to any nation, represent extreme danger to our country. In response to these threats, the U.S. military is considering radical solutions; one of which includes a better understanding of our enemies.

     Recognizing that military power alone cannot beat 21st century terrorists; former DARPA director Robert Popp believes that we must improve intelligence. “We need more Arabic speakers, more experts who understand tribal relations in Pakistan, and diplomats who can win over audiences on Al Jazeera, the popular Arab TV news channel,” Popp says.

     Also, forward-thinkers believe that future technologies may soon help. Over the next two decades, biotechnologies promises to improve health and extend lives and molecular nanotechnology advances, some predict, could bring an end to food, water and energy shortages worldwide. As these breakthroughs materialize, they will increase prosperity everywhere and eliminate much of the underlying causes of unrest in developing nations.

     Could technologies finally end all wars and conflicts on Earth? Positive futurists believe that they can, as we move towards a most amazing and peaceful “magical future.”

This article appeared in various print publications and on-line blogs. Comments always welcome.