Future of jobs in a world filled with automation and robots

By Dick Pelletier

     A recent World Future Society report explains how technology is indeed a job killer. The whole idea of tools, machines, and systems is to do things easier, faster, or better than barehanded humans can; so industry, by its very nature, is motivated to reduce human labor.

     Automated systems will soon cause more job losses than all of America’s outsourcing to third-world countries combined, and policymakers must now create new social and economic measures to prepare for what some refer to as, "the robotic industrialization of the world."

     A large number of first-level jobs in service industries related to customer service, help desk, and directory assistance are about to be lost to emerging intelligent systems, according to a recent Strategy Analytics report.

     This wave of job losses follows the elimination of 10 million jobs involving physical labor and repetitive activities that were wiped out during the past 10 years, as machines and automated systems replaced humans, the report noted. During the same period, businesses invested more than $100 billion in robotics and supporting systems. Today, over 1 million robots work worldwide.

     And another threat will soon be emerging, according to economists. For a growing segment of workers with midrange skills, further expansion of intelligent systems into capabilities involving decision making, advisory functions, identification, and analytical functions will result in even more job losses.

     Automated systems will slowly nibble away at lower-skilled jobs before moving on to the main course. As robots become more plentiful and smarter, no job is safe; no age or class immune. Every job from janitor to executive is at risk.

     But as technology takes, it also gives. Nano-replicators expected by mid-2020s, could drastically lower living costs, reducing the amount of income needed. Scientists say these countertop machines will transform dirt, air and seawater into food, clothing and household items at little or no cost.

     However, these technology benefits may not be enough to raise a jobless family’s living standard to levels necessary to enjoy tomorrow's high-tech world, so economists suggest that governments should create a "citizen's basic income" (CBI) program similar to the one instituted in Brazil. CBIs would provide every citizen with basic income, which could be paid for, experts say, by taxing automated businesses.

     Roboticist Hans Moravec predicts that by 2020, robots will simulate the intelligence of a monkey. That may not seem smart, but with adequate software, it will be intelligent enough to perform most of today's jobs. And here’s the "killer-ap" – future 'bots can build labor-free copies of themselves increasing their numbers exponentially. By mid-2020s, some predict, humanoids could outnumber people.

     As robots advance, ethical issues will arise. 2020 robots with "monkey" intelligence may act too dumb; if they are teased or abused, should the law protect them? How about 2030 'bots with human-level intelligence; do we treat them as equals? Finally, how do we keep robots that surpass human intelligence, as predicted by many to happen by mid-2030s, from mistreating us?

     Clearly, our automated world of tomorrow poses unknown, possibly even dangerous turns; but this writer envisions a "magical future" unfolding with driverless air/cars, indefinite lifespan, and robots that promise an enjoyable experience for everyone.

This article appeared in various print publications and on-line blogs. Comments always welcome.