21st century wars: technology, intelligence could win for U.S.

By Dick Pelletier

In War Made New, an epic history of conflicts, author Max Boot explores how innovations in weaponry have not only transformed how wars are fought and won but also have guided human events – from the formation of the first modern states, to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the coming of al-Qaeda.

Over the last 500 years, Boot says, the fate of nations has often depended on how fast they adapt to changes in military technologies. Until the 15th century, the mightiest military forces belonged to the Mongols. However, strong as they were with bows and arrows, these sturdy warriors could not keep pace with gunpowder weapons and the rise of countries that used them, and they quickly fell behind.

In the 20th century, the U.S., Soviet Union, and their allies foresaw the importance of internal combustion engines, airplanes and radios. By 1942, Germany, Italy and Japan controlled most of the natural resources in East Asia and Europe, but they did not fully utilize all the new technologies.

The Soviet Union and the U.S. did a better job in managing wartime production and grabbed the lead in weapons such as tanks (Soviet Union) and long-range bombers and aircraft carriers (U.S.). Late 20th century information technologies changed things even further, as the Soviets had no Silicon Valley and could not compete with the U.S. in integrating computers into the economy.

But history teaches us that no military lead will remain safe forever. Today, al-Qaeda challenges our superiority by using the Internet, satellite television, and cellphones to organize insurgencies.

Currently, the U.S. enjoys a huge advantage in high-end military hardware. No one else is building nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, stealth fighters or unmanned aerial vehicles. In fact, we spend more on new weapons development – $71 billion this year – than any other country spends on its entire defense. But all that spending has not brought peace to Baghdad or Kandahar.

Technology isn’t irrelevant to the global war on terror, though. Dr. Robert Popp, forward-thinker at the Defense Advanced Research Project Administration sees a multitude of futuristic concepts being bandied about at his organization. These include the following:

· Next generation armed robot vehicles and flying drones with stronger capabilities and more firepower.
· Stun guns that incapacitate crowds by showering them with lightning-like bolts of electricity.
· Cyborg flies – half insect, half robot – that sniff out explosives and listen to enemy conversations.
· Drones with bombs that hover in outer-space over enemy territory, turning space into a war zone.
· ICBMs with conventional warheads, launched from the U.S. to sites like Osama bin Laden’s cave.
· Nanodust that seeps into enemy brains encouraging them to surrender.

However, experts say being a military powerhouse isn’t enough. To beat terrorism in the 21st century, Dr. Popp believes we must get better at human intelligence and related disciplines. “We need more speakers of Arabic, more experts who understand tribal relations in Iraq’s Anbar province and Pakistan’s Northwest Frontier province, and more diplomats who can win over audiences on Al Jazeera, the world’s most popular Arab TV news channel”.

Will humanity ever stop fighting and settle into a ‘magical future’? Positive futurists believe it will.

This article appeared in various print publications and on-line blogs. Comments always welcome.