Terrorist nuclear attack likely within decade, say analysts

By Dick Pelletier

     The world faces an estimated 70 percent chance of a nuclear, biological or chemical attack in the next decade, according to national security analysts surveyed for a recent Senate Foreign Relations Committee study.

     More than half of the 85 analysts contacted believed one or two new countries would acquire nuclear weapons within five years, and five more will obtain them in ten. They counted technology sharing between terrorist groups among activities that posed the greatest dangers, and attacks by terrorists as more likely than those posed by rogue states.

     Committee Chair Senator Richard Lugar said that though the U.S. may be successful in building new democracies, we are not safe from small, fanatical terrorist cells that could possibly get their hands on nuclear materials.

     How great is this risk? During the Cold War, the possibility of a nuclear war that could kill every American made it imperative to do anything possible to avoid conflict. Today, the consequence of even a single nuclear weapon exploding in a U.S. city is almost beyond imagination.

     Terrorist’s armed with one nuclear bomb could murder a million people – killing in one day twice as many Americans as died in both twentieth century World Wars combined.

     A WMD attack on the U.S. would have catastrophic consequences for other countries too. Researchers at RAND, a government think tank, estimated that a nuclear explosion at the Port of Long Beach in California would cause immediate indirect costs worldwide of more than $3 trillion and, the shutting down of U.S. ports would cut world trade by 10 percent.

     How could terrorists deliver a nuclear weapon to its target? Arms control expert Albert Carnesale, says, “They could simply hide it in a bale of marijuana, which can easily be smuggled into any city”. Others believe that with minimal training, an Al Qaeda suicide bomber could assemble a nuclear or other WMD right here in our own country, drive it to the target area, and detonate.

     So, how can we defend against this threat? America can make terrorism hide its ugly head for a while, but to eliminate this danger permanently, we must first bring the world together. We could start with the U.S. and Russia, who control 95 percent of all nuclear weapons, then request that the U.N. convene a World Summit to form a global alliance against terrorism.

     Social experts believe that hatred and rage caused by human inequalities that exist in many third-world countries becomes a melting pot for breeding terrorists. Dissatisfaction is strongest among poor people in overpopulated cities, especially in middle-eastern countries.

     Every human should have the right to live a dignified life, and not feel shamed or ignored. Powerful tools are available that developed nations can use to help those who are less fortunate. These include micro-credits for self-employment, productivity improvements for farmers, cheap solar energy, satellite TV, and Internet connections with low-cost computers.

     Every country that attended a recent U.N. Millennium conference vowed to reduce the number of their poor by 2015, and end poverty completely by 2030. Commitments like these promise great hope, but will they come in time to avert disaster? Positive thinkers predicting a ‘magical future’ ahead believe they will.

This article appeared in various print publications and on-line blogs. Comments always welcome.